• Lennart Hovelius and Hans Rahme.
• Orthopedic Department, Gävle Hospital, Lasarettsvägen 1, SE-801 88, Gävle, Sweden. hovelius@swipnet.se.
• Knee Surg Sports Traumatol Arthrosc. 2016 Feb 1; 24 (2): 330-42.

PurposeWe describe the long-term prognosis in 257 first-time anterior shoulder dislocations (255 patients, aged 12-40 years) registered at 27 Swedish emergency units between 1978 and 1979.MethodsHalf the shoulders were immobilised for 3-4 weeks after repositioning. Follow-ups were performed after two (questionnaire), five (questionnaire), 10 (questionnaire and radiology) and 25 (questionnaire and radiology) years in 227 patients (229 shoulders). Twenty-eight patients died during the 25 years of observation.ResultsEarly movement or immobilisation after the primary dislocation resulted in the same long-term prognosis. Recurrences increased up to 10 years of follow-up, but, after 25 years, 29 % of the shoulders with ≥2 recurrences appeared to have stabilised over time. Arthropathy increased from 9 % moderate to severe and 11 % mild at 10 years, to 34 % moderate to severe and 27 % mild after 25 years. Alcoholics had a poorer prognosis with respect to dislocation arthropathy (P < 0.001). Age <25 years and/or bilateral instability represent a poorer prognosis, where stabilising surgery is necessary in every second shoulder. Fracture of the greater tuberosity means a good prognosis, and we have found no evidence that athletic activity, gender, a Hill-Sachs lesion and minor rim fractures had any prognostic impact. During the 25 years in which these patients were followed, 28/255 died (11 %), representing a mortality rate (SMR) that was more than double that of the general Swedish population (P < 0.001).ConclusionAlmost half of all first-time dislocations at the age of <25 years will have stabilising surgery and two-thirds will develop different stages of arthropathy within 25 years.

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