Linking key intervention timing to rapid decline of the COVID-19

Int. J. Infect. Dis. · Aug 2020

Linking key intervention timing to rapid decline of the COVID-19 effective reproductive number to quantify lessons from mainland China.

Effective reproductive numbers (Rt) were calculated from data on the COVID-19 outbreak in China and linked to dates in 2020 when different interventions were enacted. From a maximum of 3.98 before the lockdown in Wuhan City, the values of Rt declined to below 1 by the second week of February, after the construction of hospitals dedicated to COVID-19 patients. The Rt continued to decline following additional measures in line with the policy of "early detection, early report, early quarantine, and early treatment." The results provide quantitative evaluations of how intervention measures and their timings succeeded, from which lessons can be learned by other countries dealing with future outbreaks.

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- Yanni Xiao, Biao Tang, Jianhong Wu, Robert A Cheke, and Sanyi Tang.
- The Interdisciplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University, People's Republic of China; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, People's Republic of China. Electronic address: yxiao@xjtu.edu.cn.
- Int. J. Infect. Dis. 2020 Aug 1; 97: 296-298.
AbstractEffective reproductive numbers (Rt) were calculated from data on the COVID-19 outbreak in China and linked to dates in 2020 when different interventions were enacted. From a maximum of 3.98 before the lockdown in Wuhan City, the values of Rt declined to below 1 by the second week of February, after the construction of hospitals dedicated to COVID-19 patients. The Rt continued to decline following additional measures in line with the policy of "early detection, early report, early quarantine, and early treatment." The results provide quantitative evaluations of how intervention measures and their timings succeeded, from which lessons can be learned by other countries dealing with future outbreaks.Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

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Linking key intervention timing to rapid decline of the COVID-19 effective reproductive number to quantify lessons from mainland China.

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