• Hee Sung Lee, Hyoung Soo Kim, Sun Hee Lee, Song Am Lee, Jae Joon Hwang, Jae Bum Park, Yo Han Kim, Hyoung Ju Moon, and Woo Surng Lee.
• Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, College of Medicine, Hallym University, Hallym University Dongtan Medical Center, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea.
• J Thorac Dis. 2019 Jan 1; 11 (1): 68-83.

BackgroundPrediction of survival and weaning probability in VA ECMO (veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation) patients could be of great benefit for real-time decision making on VA ECMO initiation in critical ill patients. We investigated whether the SAPS II score would be a real-time determinant for VA ECMO initiation and could be a predictor of survival and weaning probability in patients on VA ECMO.MethodsBetween January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2014, VA ECMO was carried out on 135 adult patients suffering from primary cardiogenic shock. To avoid selection bias, we excluded respiratory failure patients treated with VV or other types of ECMO. Successful VA ECMO weaning was defined as weaning, followed by stable survival for more than 48 hours. Survival after VA ECMO was defined as successful weaning and treatment of the underlying medical condition, followed by discharge without any further events.ResultsA total of 135 patients consisted of 41 women and 94 men, with a mean age of 59.4±16.5 years. Fifty-three patients had successful weaning, and 35 survived and were discharged uneventfully. Compared to the non-survivors, the survivors showed a lower SAPS II (67.77±20.79 vs. 90.29±13.31, P<0.001), a lower SOFA score (12.63±3.49 vs. 15.33±2.28, P<0.001), a lower predicted death rate (71.12±30.51 vs. 94.00±9.36, P<0.001), a higher initial ipH (7.14±0.22 vs. 6.98±0.15, P<0.001), and a lower initial lactate level (7.09±4.93 vs. 12.11±4.84, P<0.001). The average duration of hospital stay in the successful vs. failed weaning groups was 33.43±27.41 vs. 6.35±8.71 days, and the average duration of ICU stay in the successful vs. failed weaning groups was 20.60±16.88 vs. 5.39±5.95 days. By multivariate logistic regression analysis of initial parameters for VA ECMO assistance, the simplified acute physiology score II (SAPS II) (OR =1.1019, P=0.0389), ipH (OR =0.0010, P=0.0452), and hospital stay (OR =0.8140, P=0.001) had an association with in-hospital mortality on VA ECMO. The initial SAPS II score [area under the curve (AUC) =0.821] demonstrated significantly superior prediction of VA ECMO mortality than age (AUC =0.697), SOFA score (AUC =0.701), ipH (AUC =0.551), and the other parameters. By multivariable CoX regression analysis of survival, only the SAPS II score proved to have statistical significance (hazard ratio, 1.0423; 95% CI, 1.0083-1.0775; P=0.01).ConclusionsAlthough the precise predictive scoring systems for VA ECMO still remains one of the most difficult challenges to ECMO physicians, the SAPS II score could provide valuable information on prognosis to patient himself, family members and caretakers, and might help physicians increase the survival rate and might avoid a waste of healthcare resources.

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