• Emerging Infect. Dis. · Mar 2004

    Predicting quarantine failure rates.

    • Troy Day.
    • Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada K7L 3N6. tday@mast.queensu.ca
    • Emerging Infect. Dis. 2004 Mar 1; 10 (3): 487-8.

    AbstractPreemptive quarantine through contact-tracing effectively controls emerging infectious diseases. Occasionally this quarantine fails, however, and infected persons are released. The probability of quarantine failure is typically estimated from disease-specific data. Here a simple, exact estimate of the failure rate is derived that does not depend on disease-specific parameters. This estimate is universally applicable to all infectious diseases.

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