• Ye-Yu Zhao, Qin-Si Wan, Zheng Hao, Hua-Xin Zhu, Ze-Long Xing, and Mei-Hua Li.
• Department of Neurosurgery.
• Medicine (Baltimore). 2020 Mar 1; 99 (10): e19416.

AbstractThe present study aimed to develop an effective nomogram for predicting the overall survival (OS) of patients with cerebral anaplastic glioma (AG).This study included 1939 patients diagnosed with AG between 1973 and 2013 who were identified using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. A multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that age, histology, tumor site, marital status, radiotherapy, and surgery were independent prognostic factors and, thus, these factors were selected to build a clinical nomogram. Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and a calibration curve were formulated to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the nomogram using bootstrapping.A nomogram was developed to predict 5- and 9-year OS rates based on 6 independent prognostic factors identified in the training set: age, tumor site, marital status, histology, radiotherapy, and surgery (P < .05). The Harrell's concordance index values of the training and validation sets were 0.776 (0.759-0.793) and 0.766 (0.739-0.792), respectively. The calibration curve exhibited good consistency with the actual observation curve in both sets.Although the prognostic value of the World Health Organization (WHO) classification has been validated, we developed a novel nomogram based on readily available clinical variables in terms of demographic data, therapeutic modalities, and tumor characteristics to predict the survival of AG patients. When used in combination with the WHO classification system, this clinical nomogram can aid clinicians in making individualized predictions of AG patient survival and improving treatment strategies.

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