• John Ty Soong, Giles Rolph, Alan J Poots, and Derek Bell.
• National University Hospital, Singapore john_soong@nuhs.edu.sg.
• Clin Med (Lond). 2020 Mar 1; 20 (2): 183188183-188.

BackgroundIdentifying older people with clinical frailty, reliably and at scale, is a research priority. We measured frailty in older people using a novel methodology coding frailty syndromes on routinely collected administrative data, developed on a national English secondary care population, and explored its performance of predicting inpatient mortality and long length of stay at a single acute hospital.MethodologyWe included patient spells from Secondary User Service (SUS) data for those ≥65 years with attendance to the emergency department or admission to West Middlesex University Hospital between 01 July 2016 to 01 July 2017. We created eight groups of frailty syndromes using diagnostic coding groups. We used descriptive statistics and logistic regression to explore performance of diagnostic coding groups for the above outcomes.ResultsWe included 17,199 patient episodes in the analysis. There was at least one frailty syndrome present in 7,004 (40.7%) patient episodes. The resultant model had moderate discrimination for inpatient mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.74; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.72-0.76) and upper quartile length of stay (AUC 0.731; 95% CI 0.722-0.741). There was good negative predictive value for inpatient mortality (98.1%).ConclusionsCoded frailty syndromes significantly predict outcomes. Model diagnostics suggest the model could be used for screening of elderly patients to optimise their care.© Royal College of Physicians 2020. All rights reserved.

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