• J Res Med Sci · Jan 2017

    Development of a scoring system using a statistical model to predict cure status in patients with cutaneous leishmaniasis.

    • Mehri Khoshhali, Sayed Mohsen Hosseini, Mohammad Ali Nilforoushzadeh, Fariba Jaffary, and Azadeh Zolfaghari Baghbaderani.
    • Skin and Stem Cell Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran; Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.
    • J Res Med Sci. 2017 Jan 1; 22: 1.

    BackgroundThe present study was performed to develop a scoring system for predicting cure status in patients with cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL).Materials And MethodsThis study included 199 patients with CL from Skin Diseases and Leishmaniasis Research Center (Isfahan, Iran). Data were collected as longitudinal in each visit of patients. We applied ordinal logistic generalized estimating equation regression to predict score on this correlated data. To evaluate the fitted model, split sample validation method was applied. SPSS software was used for data analysis.ResultsThe regression coefficients of the fitted model were used to calculate score for cure status. Based on split-sample validation method, overall correct classification rate was 82%.ConclusionThis study suggested a scoring system predict cure status in CL patients based on clinical characteristics. Using this method, score for a CL patient is easily obtained by physicians or health workers.

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