• T P Singh, J V Moxon, V Iyer, T C Gasser, J Jenkins, and J Golledge.
• Queensland Research Centre for Peripheral Vascular Disease, College of Medicine and Dentistry, Townsville, Australia.
• Br J Surg. 2021 Jun 22; 108 (6): 652658652-658.

BackgroundPrevious studies have suggested that finite element analysis (FEA) can estimate the rupture risk of an abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA); however, the value of biomechanical estimates over measurement of AAA diameter alone remains unclear. This study aimed to compare peak wall stress (PWS) and peak wall rupture index (PWRI) in participants with ruptured and asymptomatic intact AAAs.MethodsThe reproducibility of semiautomated methods for estimating aortic PWS and PWRI from CT images was assessed. PWS and PWRI were estimated in people with ruptured AAAs and those with asymptomatic intact AAAs matched by orthogonal diameter on a 1 : 2 basis. Spearman's correlation coefficient was used to assess the association between PWS or PWRI and AAA diameter. Independent associations between PWS or PWRI and AAA rupture were identified by means of logistic regression analyses.ResultsTwenty individuals were included in the analysis of reproducibility. The main analysis included 50 patients with an intact AAA and 25 with a ruptured AAA. Median orthogonal diameter was similar in ruptured and intact AAAs (82·3 (i.q.r. 73·5-92·0) versus 81·0 (73·2-92·4) mm respectively; P = 0·906). Median PWS values were 286·8 (220·2-329·6) and 245·8 (215·2-302·3) kPa respectively (P = 0·192). There was no significant difference in PWRI between the two groups (P = 0·982). PWS and PWRI correlated positively with orthogonal diameter (both P < 0·001). Participants with high PWS, but not PWRI, were more likely to have a ruptured AAA after adjusting for potential confounders (odds ratio 5·84, 95 per cent c.i. 1·22 to 27·95; P = 0·027). This association was not maintained in all sensitivity analyses.ConclusionHigh aortic PWS had an inconsistent association with greater odds of aneurysm rupture in patients with a large AAA.© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of BJS Society Ltd. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

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