• Jordy Bollon, Matteo Paganini, Consuelo Rubina Nava, Nello De Vita, Rosanna Vaschetto, Luca Ragazzoni, Della Corte Francesco F Department of Translational Medicine, Università del Piemonte Orientale, Novara, Italy. , and Francesco Barone-Adesi.
• Department of Translational Medicine, Università del Piemonte Orientale, Novara, Italy.
• Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 2020 Oct 1; 14 (5): 638-642.

ObjectivesItaly has been one of the first countries to implement mitigation measures to curb the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. There is currently a debate on when and how such measures should be loosened. To forecast the demand for hospital intensive care unit (ICU) and non-ICU beds for COVID-19 patients from May to September, we developed 2 models, assuming a gradual easing of restrictions or an intermittent lockdown.MethodsWe used a compartmental model to evaluate 2 scenarios: (A) an intermittent lockdown; (B) a gradual relaxation of the lockdown. Predicted ICU and non-ICU demand was compared with the peak in hospital bed use observed in April 2020.ResultsUnder scenario A, while ICU demand will remain below the peak, the number of non-ICU will substantially rise and will exceed it (133%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 94-171). Under scenario B, a rise in ICU and non-ICU demand will start in July and will progressively increase over the summer 2020, reaching 95% (95% CI: 71-121) and 237% (95% CI: 191-282) of the April peak.ConclusionsItalian hospital demand is likely to remain high in the next months. If restrictions are reduced, planning for the next several months should consider an increase in health-care resources to maintain surge capacity across the country.

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