• Jacob C Jentzer, Nandan S Anavekar, Courtney Bennett, Dennis H Murphree, Mark T Keegan, Brandon Wiley, David A Morrow, Joseph G Murphy, Malcolm R Bell, and Gregory W Barsness.
• Department of Cardiovascular Medicine Mayo Clinic Rochester MN.
• J Am Heart Assoc. 2019 Sep 3; 8 (17): e013675.

AbstractBackground There are no risk scores designed specifically for mortality risk prediction in unselected cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) patients. We sought to develop a novel CICU-specific risk score for prediction of hospital mortality using variables available at the time of CICU admission. Methods and Results A database of CICU patients admitted from January 1, 2007 to April 30, 2018 was divided into derivation and validation cohorts. The top 7 predictors of hospital mortality were identified using stepwise backward regression, then used to develop the Mayo CICU Admission Risk Score (M-CARS), with integer scores ranging from 0 to 10. Discrimination was assessed using area under the receiver-operator curve analysis. Calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The derivation cohort included 10 004 patients and the validation cohort included 2634 patients (mean age 67.6 years, 37.7% females). Hospital mortality was 9.2%. Predictor variables included in the M-CARS were cardiac arrest, shock, respiratory failure, Braden skin score, blood urea nitrogen, anion gap and red blood cell distribution width at the time of CICU admission. The M-CARS showed a graded relationship with hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.84 for each 1-point increase in M-CARS, 95% CI 1.78-1.89). In the validation cohort, the M-CARS had an area under the receiver-operator curve of 0.86 for hospital mortality, with good calibration (P=0.21). The 47.1% of patients with M-CARS <2 had hospital mortality of 0.8%, and the 5.2% of patients with M-CARS >6 had hospital mortality of 51.6%. Conclusions Using 7 variables available at the time of CICU admission, the M-CARS can predict hospital mortality in unselected CICU patients with excellent discrimination.

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