• Jie Cui, Liping Wang, Guangmou Tan, Weiquan Chen, Guangmin He, Haiyan Huang, Zhen Chen, Hong Yang, Jie Chen, and Genglong Liu.
• Department of Head and Neck Surgery, Affiliated Cancer Hospital & Institute of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 510095, Guangdong Province, PR China. Electronic address: cuijir8905@163.com.
• Int J Surg. 2020 Apr 1; 76: 163-170.

BackgroundRecurrence is still major obstacle to long-term survival in laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC). We aimed to establish and validate a nomogram to precisely predict recurrence probability in patients with LSCC.MethodsA total of 283 consecutive patients with LSCC received curative-intend surgery between 2011 and 2014 at were enrolled in this study. Subsequently, 283 LSCC patients were randomly assigned to a training cohort (N = 171) and a validation cohort (N = 112) in a 3:2 ratio. According to the results of multivariable Cox regression analysis in the training cohort, we developed a nomogram. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were evaluated by calibration curve and concordance index (C-index), and compared with TNM stage system by C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to estimate clinical value of our nomogram.ResultsSix independent factors rooted in multivariable analysis of the training cohort to predict recurrence were age, tumor site, smoking, alcohol, N stage and hemoglobin, which were all integrated into the nomogram. The calibration curve for the probability of recurrence presented that the nomogram-based predictions were in good correspondence with actual observations. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.81 (0.75-0.88), and the area under curve (AUC) of nomogram in predicting recurrence free survival (RFS) was 0.894, which were significantly better than traditional TNM stage. Decision curve analysis further affirmed that our nomogram had a larger net benefit than TNM stage. The results were confirmed in the validation cohort.ConclusionA risk prediction nomogram for patients with LSCC, incorporating readily assessable clinicopathologic variables, generates more accurate estimations of the recurrence probability when compared TNM stage alone, but still needs additional data before being used in clinical implications.Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

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