• Christopher J Mullin, Rubina M Khair, Rachel L Damico, Todd M Kolb, Laura K Hummers, Paul M Hassoun, Virginia D Steen, Stephen C Mathai, and PHAROS Investigators.
• Warren Alpert Medical School of Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island.
• Arthritis Rheumatol. 2019 Oct 1; 71 (10): 1691-1700.

ObjectiveA prognostic equation and risk score calculator derived from the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) are being used to predict 1-year survival in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), but little is known about the performance of these REVEAL survival prediction tools in systemic sclerosis (SSc)-associated PAH (SSc-PAH).MethodsProspectively gathered data from the Johns Hopkins Pulmonary Hypertension Program and Pulmonary Hypertension Assessment and Recognition of Outcome in Scleroderma Registries were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the REVEAL models for predicting the probability of 1-year survival in patients with SSc-PAH. Model discrimination was assessed by comparison of the Harrell's C-index, model fit was assessed using multivariable regression techniques, and model calibration was assessed by comparing predicted to observed survival estimates.ResultsThe validation cohort consisted of 292 SSc-PAH patients with a 1-year survival rate of 87.4%. The C-index for predictive accuracy of the REVEAL prognostic equation (0.734, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.652-0.816) and for the risk score (0.743, 95% CI 0.663-0.823) demonstrated good discrimination, comparable to that in the model development cohort. The calibration slope was 0.707 (95% CI 0.400-1.014), indicating that the overall model fit was marginal (P = 0.06). The magnitude of risk assigned to low distance on the 6-minute walk test (6MWD) and elevated serum levels of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) was lower in the validation cohort than was originally seen in the REVEAL derivation cohort. Model calibration was poor, particularly for the highest risk groups.ConclusionIn predicting 1-year survival in patients newly diagnosed as having SSc-PAH, the REVEAL prognostic equation and risk score provide very good discrimination but poor calibration. REVEAL prediction scores should be interpreted with caution in newly diagnosed SSc-PAH patients, particularly those with higher predicted risk of poor 1-year survival resulting from a low 6MWD or a high BNP serum level.© 2019, American College of Rheumatology.

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