• X H Zhu, M Y Yang, H Z Xia, W He, Z Y Zhang, Y Q Liu, C L Xiao, L L Ma, and J Lu.
• Department of Urology, Peking University Third Hospital, Beijing 100191, China.
• Beijing Da Xue Xue Bao. 2019 Aug 18; 51 (4): 653-659.

ObjectiveTo establish predictive models based on random forest and XGBoost machine learning algorithm and to investigate their value in predicting early stone-free rate (SFR) after flexible ureteroscopic lithotripsy (fURL) in patients with renal stones.MethodsThe clinical data of 201 patients with renal stones who underwent fURL were retrospectively investigated. According to the stone-free standard, the patients were divided into stone-free group (SF group) and stone-residual group (SR group). We compared a number of factors including patient age, body mass index (BMI), stone number, stone volume, stone density and hydronephrosis between the two groups. For low calyceal calculi, renal anatomic parameters including infundibular angle (IPA), infundibular width (IW), infundibular length (IL) and pelvic calyceal height (PCH), would be measured. We brought above potential predictive factors into random forest and XGBoost machine learning algorithm respectively to develop two predictive models. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) was established in order to test the predictive ability of the model. Clinical data of 71 patients were collected prospectively to validate the predictive models externally.ResultsIn this study, 201 fURL operations were successfully completed. The one-phase early SFR was 61.2%. We built two predictive models based on random forest and XGBoost machine learning algorithm. The predictive variables' importance scores were obtained. The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) of the two predictive models for early stone clearance status prediction was 0.77. In the study, 71 test samples were used for external validation. The results showed that the total predictive accuracy, predictive specificity and predictive sensitivity of the random forest and XGBoost models were 75.7%, 82.6%, 60.0%, and 81.4%, 87.0%, 68.0%, respectively. The first four predictive variables in importance were stone volume, mean stone density, maximal stone density and BMI in both random forest and XGBoost predictive models.ConclusionThe predictive models based on random forest and XGBoost machine learning algorithm can predict postoperative early stone status after fURL for renal stones accurately, which will facilitate preoperative evaluation and clinical decision-making. Stone volume, mean stone density, maximal stone density and BMI may be the important predictive factors affecting early SFR after fURL for renal stones.

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