• Iyad Kheirbek, Jay Haney, Sharon Douglas, Kazuhiko Ito, Steven Caputo, and Thomas Matte.
• New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, Bureau of Environmental Surveillance and Policy, 125 Worth Street, Third Flr. CN-34E, New York, New York 10014, United States.
• Environ. Sci. Technol. 2014 Dec 2; 48 (23): 13573-82.

AbstractIn recent years, both New York State and City issued regulations to reduce emissions from burning heating oil. To assess the benefits of these programs in New York City, where the density of emissions and vulnerable populations vary greatly, we simulated the air quality benefits of scenarios reflecting no action, partial, and complete phase-out of high-sulfur heating fuels using the Community MultiScale Air Quality (CMAQ) model conducted at a high spatial resolution (1 km). We evaluated the premature mortality and morbidity benefits of the scenarios within 42 city neighborhoods and computed benefits by neighborhood poverty status. The complete phase-out scenario reduces annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) by an estimated 0.71 μg/m(3) city-wide (average of 1 km estimates, 10-90th percentile: 0.1-1.6 μg/m(3)), avoiding an estimated 290 premature deaths, 180 hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular disease, and 550 emergency department visits for asthma each year. The largest improvements were seen in areas of highest building and population density and the majority of benefits have occurred through the partial phase out of high-sulfur heating fuel already achieved. While emissions reductions were greatest in low-poverty neighborhoods, health benefits are estimated to be greatest in high-poverty neighborhoods due to higher baseline morbidity and mortality rates.

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