• Mikhail Sofiev, James J Winebrake, Lasse Johansson, Edward W Carr, Marje Prank, Joana Soares, Julius Vira, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, and James J Corbett.
• Atmospheric Composition Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101, Helsinki, Finland.
• Nat Commun. 2018 Feb 6; 9 (1): 406.

AbstractWe evaluate public health and climate impacts of low-sulphur fuels in global shipping. Using high-resolution emissions inventories, integrated atmospheric models, and health risk functions, we assess ship-related PM2.5 pollution impacts in 2020 with and without the use of low-sulphur fuels. Cleaner marine fuels will reduce ship-related premature mortality and morbidity by 34 and 54%, respectively, representing a ~ 2.6% global reduction in PM2.5 cardiovascular and lung cancer deaths and a ~3.6% global reduction in childhood asthma. Despite these reductions, low-sulphur marine fuels will still account for ~250k deaths and ~6.4 M childhood asthma cases annually, and more stringent standards beyond 2020 may provide additional health benefits. Lower sulphur fuels also reduce radiative cooling from ship aerosols by ~80%, equating to a ~3% increase in current estimates of total anthropogenic forcing. Therefore, stronger international shipping policies may need to achieve climate and health targets by jointly reducing greenhouse gases and air pollution.

33 keywords...

hide…