• Jianming Xu, Luyu Chang, Fengxia Yan, and JinHai He.
• Yangtze River Delta Center for Environmental Meteorology Prediction and Warning, Shanghai, China; Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai, China. Electronic address: metxujm@163.com.
• Sci. Total Environ. 2017 Dec 1; 599-600: 918-925.

AbstractThe wintertime haze day (HD) in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region of China shows a significant upward trend during the past decades due to the rapid industrialization and urbanization. Besides the enhanced anthropogenic emission, climate change also plays the important role in the long term HD variations. In this study, the significant decadal variation of wintertime HD during the period 1960-2012 in YRD is examined by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, featured as less HD occurrence before 1980 and more occurrence after 2000. The numerical simulations by the global transport and chemical model (Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers, MOZART) with the same emission inventory suggest 8.4% enhancement of wintertime PM2.5 (particulate matter with the equivalent diameter of air dynamics less than or equal to 2.5μm) mass concentration in YRD during 2001-2009 compared with that during 1971-1979 attributed to meteorological changes, indicating the significant effect of climate anomaly on the decadal variations of wintertime HD. Through the composite analysis on the atmospheric dynamical and thermal conditions based on the reanalysis data, the faster warming in the lower and middle troposphere over the continent in the recent decade is suggested to be important for the out-of-phase decadal HD variation in YRD. The thermal anomaly not only reverses the zonal thermal difference of land-sea to stimulate the anomalous southerlies over YRD leading to reduced prevailing north wind in winter, but also develops the deep inversion below the mid-troposphere to enhance the atmospheric stability. As a result, more frequent and persistent air stagnations in recent decade are expected for the reduction of atmospheric horizontal dispersion and vertical diffusion capacity leading to more occurrence of wintertime HD in YRD.Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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