• Michael C Jin, Adela Wu, Zachary A Medress, Jonathon J Parker, Atman Desai, Anand Veeravagu, Gerald A Grant, Gordon Li, and John K Ratliff.
• Department of Neurosurgery, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, USA.
• World Neurosurg. 2021 Feb 1; 146: e431-e451.

ObjectiveAnticipating postdischarge complications after neurosurgery remains difficult. The LACE index, based on 4 hospitalization descriptors, stratifies patients by risk of 30-day postdischarge adverse events but has not been validated in a procedure-specific manner in neurosurgery. Our study sought to explore the usefulness of the LACE index in a population undergoing cranial neurosurgery and to develop an enhanced model, LACE-Cranial.MethodsThe OptumClinformatics Database was used to identify cranial neurosurgery admissions (2004-2017). Procedures were grouped as trauma/hematoma/intracranial pressure, open vascular, functional/pain, skull base, tumor, or endovascular. Adverse events were defined as postdischarge death/readmission. LACE-Cranial was developed using a logistic regression framework incorporating an expanded feature set in addition to the original LACE components.ResultsA total of 40,431 admissions were included. Predictions of 30-day readmissions was best for skull base (area under the curve [AUC], 0.636) and tumor (AUC, 0.63) admissions but was generally poor. Predictive ability of 30-day mortality was best for functional/pain admissions (AUC, 0.957) and poorest for trauma/hematoma/intracranial pressure admissions (AUC, 0.613). Across procedure types except for functional/pain, a high-risk LACE score was associated with higher postdischarge bundled payment costs. Incorporating features identified to contribute independent predictive value, the LACE-Cranial model achieved procedure-specific 30-day mortality AUCs ranging from 0.904 to 0.98. Prediction of 30-day and 90-day readmissions was also improved, with tumor and skull base cases achieving 90-day readmission AUCs of 0.718 and 0.717, respectively.ConclusionsAlthough the unmodified LACE index shows inconsistent classification performance, the enhanced LACE-Cranial model offers excellent prediction of short-term postdischarge mortality across procedure groups and significantly improved anticipation of short-term postdischarge readmissions.Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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