• Hayato Shigetoh, Masayuki Koga, Yoichi Tanaka, and Shu Morioka.
• Department of Neurorehabilitation, Graduate School of Health Sciences, Kio University, Nara, Japan.
• Pain Res Manag. 2020 Jan 1; 2020: 8844219.

AbstractThe process of pain recovery varies and can include the recovery, maintenance, or worsening of symptoms. Many cases of patients with pain show a tendency of recovering as predicted; however, some do not. The characteristics of cases that do not fit the prediction of pain recovery remain unclear. We performed cluster and decision tree analyses to reveal the characteristics in cases that do not fit the prediction of pain recovery. A total of 43 patients with musculoskeletal pain (nonoperative: 22 patients, operative: 13 patients) and central pain (brain disease: 5 patients, spinal cord disease: 3 patients) were included in this longitudinal study. Central sensitivity syndrome (CSS) outcome measures (Central Sensitisation Inventory), pain intensity-related outcome measures (Short-Form McGill Pain Questionnaire-2 (SFMPQ-2)), and cognitive-emotional outcome measures (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale and Pain Catastrophising Scale-4) of all patients were assessed at baseline and after 1-2 months. Regression analysis was used to calculate pain recovery prediction values. A hierarchical cluster analysis based on the predicted change of SFMPQ-2 and the observed change of SFMPQ-2 was used to extract subgroups that fit and those that do not fit pain recovery prediction. To extract the characteristics of subgroups that do not fit the prediction of pain recovery, a decision tree analysis was performed. The level of significance was set at 5%. In the results of cluster analysis, patients were classified into three subgroups. Cluster 1 was characterised by worse pain intensity from baseline, cluster 2 by pain, having recovered less and mildly than the predicted value, and Cluster 3 by a marked recovery of pain. In the results of the decision tree analysis, the CSI change was extracted as an indicator related to the classification of all clusters. Our findings suggest that the poor improvement of CSS is characteristic in cases that do not fit the prediction of pain recovery.Copyright © 2020 Hayato Shigetoh et al.

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