• Michelle A Wan, James M Clark, Miriam Nuño, David T Cooke, and Lisa M Brown.
• Division of General Thoracic Surgery, Department of Surgery, University of California, Davis Health, Sacramento, CA.
• Ann. Surg. 2022 Dec 1; 276 (6): e721e727e721-e727.

ObjectiveTo determine the effectiveness of the revised Risk Analysis Index (RAI-rev), administrative Risk Analysis Index (RAI-A), cancer-corrected Risk Analysis Index [RAI-rev (cancer-corrected)], and 5-variable modified Frailty Index for predicting 30-day morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing high-risk surgery.BackgroundThere are several frailty composite measures, but none have been evaluated for predicting morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing high-risk surgery.MethodsUsing the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database, we performed a retrospective study of patients who underwentcolectomy/proctectomy, coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), pancreaticoduodenectomy, lung resection, or esophagectomy from 2006 to 2017. RAI-rev, RAI-A, RAI-rev (cancer corrected), and 5-variable modified Frailty Index scores were calculated. Pearson's chi-square tests and C-statistics were used to assess the predictive accuracy of each score's logistic regression model.ResultsIn the cohort of 283,545 patients, there were 178,311 (63%) colectomy/proctectomy, 38,167 (14%) pancreaticoduodenectomy, 40,328 (14%) lung resection, 16,127 (6%) CABG, and 10,602 (3%) esophagectomy cases. The RAI-rev was a fair predictor of mortality in the total cohort (C-statistic, 0.71, 95% CI 0.70-0.71, P < 0.001) and for patients who underwent colectomy/proctectomy (C-statistic 0.73, 95% CI 0.72-0.74, P < 0.001) and CABG (C-statistic 0.70, 95% CI 0.68-0.73, P < 0.001), but a poor predictor of mortality in all other operation cohorts. The RAI-A was a fair predictor of mortality for colectomy/proctectomy patients (C-statistic 0.74, 95% CI 0.73- 0.74, P < 0.001). All indices were poor predictors of morbidity. The RAI-rev (cancer corrected) did not improve the accuracy of morbidity and mortality prediction.ConclusionThe presently studied frailty indices are ineffective predictors of 30-day morbidity and mortality for patients undergoing high-risk operations.Copyright © 2020 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

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