• Connie Leey-Echavarría, José Zorrilla-Riveiro, Anna Arnau, Lorena Jaén-Martínez, Daniel Lladó-Ortiz, and Emili Gené.
• Servicio de Urgencias y Emergencias, Althaia Xarxa Assistencial Universitària, Manresa, España. Programa de Doctorado en Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad Internacional de Catalunya, Barcelona, España.
• Emergencias. 2020 Nov 1; 32 (6): 395-402.

ObjectivesTo develop a model to predict hospital admission of patients in cases assessed as nonurgent or semiurgent on emergency department triage.Material And MethodsSingle-center observational study of a retrospective cohort. We included cases of patients older than 15 years whose emergency was classified as level IV-V according to the Andorran-Spanish triage model (MAT-SET, the Spanish acronym). Fourteen independent variables included demographic and care process items as well as vital signs. The dependent variable was hospital admission. The regression models were based on generalized estimating equations.ResultsA total of 53 860 episodes were included; 3430 patients (6.4%) were admitted. The median (interquartile range) age was 44.5 (31.1-63.9) years, and 54.1% were female. Vital signs were recorded in 19.3% of the episodes. The model that best predicted admission included the following variables: age > 84 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 6.72; 95% CI, 5.26-8.60); male sex (aOR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.28-1.66); referral from a primary care center (aOR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.64-2.29); referral from another acute-care hospital (aOR, 11.22; 95% CI, 4.42-28.51); arrival by ambulance (aOR, 3.72; 95% CI, 3.16-4.40); revisit 72 hours (aOR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.60-2.87); systolic blood pressure $ 150 mmHg (aOR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.71-0.97); diastolic blood pressure 60 mmHg (aOR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.25-1.98); axillary temperature > 37°C (aOR, 2.29; 95% CI, 1.91-2.74); heart rate > 100 beats/min (aOR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.40-1.96); baseline oxygen saturation in arterial blood (SaO2) 93% (aOR, 2.66; 95% CI, 1.86-3.81); and SaO2 93%-95% (aOR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.42-2.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model was 0.82 (95% CI; 95% CI, 0.80-0.83).ConclusionThe model predicts which patients are more likely to be admitted after their cases were initially considered nonurgent or semi-urgent on triage. Patients found to be at risk can then be given greater attention than others in the same triage level.

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