• Sao Paulo Med J · Nov 2020

    Incidence and spatial distribution of cases of dengue, from 2010 to 2019: an ecological study.

    • Petrúcio Luiz Lins de Morais, Priscila Mayrelle Silva Castanha, and Ulisses Ramos Montarroyos.
    • BSc. Assistant Professor, Department of Biological Sciences, Universidade de Pernambuco (UPE), Garanhuns (PE), Brazil.
    • Sao Paulo Med J. 2020 Nov 1; 138 (6): 554560554-560.

    BackgroundDengue is an arbovirus that has caused serious problem in Brazil, putting the public health system under severe stress. Understanding its incidence and spatial distribution is essential for disease control and prevention.ObjectiveTo perform an analysis on dengue incidence and spatial distribution in a medium-sized, cool-climate and high-altitude city.Design And SettingEcological study carried out in a public institution in the city of Garanhuns, Pernambuco, Brazil.MethodsSecondary data provided by specific agencies in each area were used for spatial analysis and elaboration of kernel maps, incidence calculations, correlations and percentages of dengue occurrence. The Geocentric Reference System for the Americas (Sistema de Referência Geocêntrico para as Américas, SIRGAS), 2000, was the software of choice.ResultsThe incidence rates were calculated per 100,000 inhabitants. Between 2010 and 2019, there were 6,504 cases and the incidence was 474.92. From 2010 to 2014, the incidence was 161.46 for a total of 1,069 cases. The highest incidence occurred in the period from 2015 to 2019: out of a total of 5,435 cases, the incidence was 748.65, representing an increase of 485.97%. Population density and the interaction between two climatic factors, i.e. atypical temperature above 31 °C and relative humidity above 31.4%, contributed to the peak incidence of dengue, although these variables were not statistically significant (P > 0.05).ConclusionThe dengue incidence levels and spatial distribution reflected virus and vector adjustment to the local climate. However, there was no correlation between climatic factors and occurrences of dengue in this city.

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