• Zhihong Weng, Qiaosen Chen, Sumeng Li, Huadong Li, Qian Zhang, Sihong Lu, Li Wu, Leiqun Xiong, Bobin Mi, Di Liu, Mengji Lu, Dongliang Yang, Hongbo Jiang, Shaoping Zheng, and Xin Zheng.
• Department of Infectious Diseases, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1277 JieFang Avenue, Wuhan, 430022, China.
• J Transl Med. 2020 Aug 31; 18 (1): 328.

BackgroundPatients with severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) will progress rapidly to acute respiratory failure or death. We aimed to develop a quantitative tool for early predicting mortality risk of patients with COVID-19.Methods301 patients with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to Main District and Tumor Center of the Union Hospital of Huazhong University of Science and Technology (Wuhan, China) between January 1, 2020 to February 15, 2020 were enrolled in this retrospective two-centers study. Data on patient demographic characteristics, laboratory findings and clinical outcomes was analyzed. A nomogram was constructed to predict the death probability of COVID-19 patients.ResultsAge, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, D-dimer and C-reactive protein obtained on admission were identified as predictors of mortality for COVID-19 patients by LASSO. The nomogram demonstrated good calibration and discrimination with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.921 and 0.975 for the derivation and validation cohort, respectively. An integrated score (named ANDC) with its corresponding death probability was derived. Using ANDC cut-off values of 59 and 101, COVID-19 patients were classified into three subgroups. The death probability of low risk group (ANDC < 59) was less than 5%, moderate risk group (59 ≤ ANDC ≤ 101) was 5% to 50%, and high risk group (ANDC > 101) was more than 50%, respectively.ConclusionThe prognostic nomogram exhibited good discrimination power in early identification of COVID-19 patients with high mortality risk, and ANDC score may help physicians to optimize patient stratification management.

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