• Lei Zhang, Guangdong Hou, Ming Gao, Yu Zheng, Xinlong Dun, Niuniu Hou, Wanxiang Zheng, Fei Yan, Jun Lu, Ping Meng, Dongen Ju, Jiarui Yuan, Di Wei, Zheng Zhu, Fuli Wang, and Jianlin Yuan.
• Department of Urology, Xijing Hospital, Fourth Military Medical University.
• Medicine (Baltimore). 2020 Dec 24; 99 (52): e23465.

AbstractSurvival heterogeneity is observed among renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients with metastases in different organs. Moreover, almost all previous prognostic nomograms based on data from metastatic RCC patients did not take competing events, such as death from cerebrovascular and heart diseases, into account. We aimed to construct novel prognostic nomograms for patients with lung metastatic clear cell RCC (LMCCRCC).Data of 712 non-Hispanic white LMCCRCC patients registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database were retrospectively analyzed. Nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) were established using the Cox approach and Fine and Gray approach, respectively, and their performances were assessed using the concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, and an independent cohort comprising 181 Hispanic patients.Sex, tumor grade, T stage, N stage, presence or absence of bone metastases, and presence or absence of brain metastases were independent predictors for both OS and DSS. Additionally, presence or absence of liver metastases was an independent predictor only for DSS. Meanwhile, age at diagnosis was independently associated with OS. The C-indexes of the nomograms were 0.702 for OS and 0.723 for DSS in internal validation. In external validation, the C-indexes were 0.700 for OS and 0.708 for DSS. Both internal and external calibration plots showed excellent consistency between the prediction and the observation.The current study developed a novel nomogram for predicting individual OS in LMCCRCC patients. Moreover, we constructed an effective competing risk nomogram for predicting their individual DSS for the first time.Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.

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