• Codie A Primeau, Trevor B Birmingham, Kristyn M Leitch, Kevin R Willits, Robert B Litchfield, Peter J Fowler, Jacquelyn D Marsh, Bert M Chesworth, Stephanie N Dixon, Dianne M Bryant, and J Robert Giffin.
• Fowler Kennedy Sport Medicine Clinic (Primeau, Birmingham, Leitch, Willits, Litchfield, Fowler, Bryant, Giffin); School of Physical Therapy, Faculty of Health Sciences (Primeau, Birmingham, Marsh, Chesworth, Bryant); Collaborative Specialization in Musculoskeletal Health Research, Bone and Joint Institute (Primeau); Bone and Joint Institute (Birmingham, Willits, Litchfield, Marsh, Chesworth, Bryant, Giffin); Department of Surgery, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry (Willits, Litchfield, Giffin); Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics (Dixon), Western University; Lawson Health Research Institute (Dixon), London, Ont.
• CMAJ. 2021 Feb 1; 193 (5): E158E166E158-E166.

BackgroundAn important aim of high tibial osteotomy (HTO) is to prevent or delay the need for total knee replacement (TKR). We sought to estimate the frequency and timing of conversion from HTO to TKR and the factors associated with it.MethodsWe prospectively evaluated patients with osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee who underwent medial opening wedge HTO from 2002 to 2014 and analyzed the cumulative incidence of TKR in July 2019. The presence or absence of TKR on the HTO limb was identified from the orthopedic surgery reports and knee radiographs contained in the electronic medical records for each patient at London Health Sciences Centre. We used cumulative incidence curves to evaluate the primary outcome of time to TKR. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis to assess potential preoperative predictors including radiographic disease severity, malalignment, correction size, pain, sex, age, body mass index (BMI) and year of surgery.ResultsAmong 556 patients who underwent 643 HTO procedures, the cumulative incidence of TKR was 5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3%-7%) at 5 years and 21% (95% CI 17%-26%) at 10 years. With the Cox proportional hazards multivariable model, the following preoperative factors were significantly associated with an increased rate of conversion: radiographic OA severity (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.96, 95% CI 1.12-3.45), pain (adjusted HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.75-0.96)], female sex (adjusted HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.08-2.58), age (adjusted HR 1.50 per 10 yr, 95% CI 1.17-1.93) and BMI (adjusted HR 1.31 per 5 kng/m2, 95% CI 1.12-1.53).InterpretationWe found that 79% of knees did not undergo TKR within 10 years after undergoing medial opening wedge HTO. The strongest predictor of conversion to TKR is greater radiographic disease at the time of HTO.© 2021 Joule Inc. or its licensors.

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