• Ahmad Omair, Anne F Mannion, Marit Holden, Gunnar Leivseth, Jeremy Fairbank, Olle Hägg, Peter Fritzell, and Jens I Brox.
• Department of Orthopaedics, Oslo University Hospital-Rikshospitalet, Oslo, Norway. dr.ahmad.omair@gmail.com.
• Eur Spine J. 2016 Jan 1; 25 (1): 2-13.

PurposeDoes lumbar fusion lead to accelerated adjacent segment disc degeneration (ASDD) or is it explained by genetics and aging? The influence of genetics on ASDD remains to be explored. This study assesses whether the disc space height adjacent to a fused segment is associated with candidate gene single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs).MethodsPatients with low back pain from four RCTs (N = 208 fusion; 77 non-operative treatment) underwent standing plain radiography and genetic analyses at 13 ± 4 years follow-up. Disc space height was measured using a validated computer-assisted distortion-compensated roentgen analysis technique and reported in standard deviations from normal values. Genetic association analyses included 34 SNPs in 25 structural, inflammatory, matrix degrading, apoptotic, vitamin D receptor and OA-related genes relevant to disc degeneration. These were analysed for their association with disc space height (after adjusting for age, gender, smoking, duration of follow-up and treatment group) first, separately, and then together in a stepwise multivariable model.ResultsTwo SNPs from the IL18RAP gene (rs1420106 and rs917997) were each associated with a lower disc space height at the adjacent level (B = -0.34, p = 0.04 and B = -0.35, p = 0.04, respectively) and the MMP-9 gene SNP rs20544 was associated with a greater disc space height (B = 0.35, p = 0.04). Age (p < 0.001) and fusion (p < 0.008) were also significant variables in each analysis. The total explained variance in disc space height was for each SNP model 13-14 %, with 11-12 % of this being accounted for by the given SNP, 64-67 % by age and 19-22 % by fusion. In the multivariable regression analysis (with nine SNPs selected for entry, along with the covariates) the total explained variance in disc space height was 23 %, with the nine SNPs, age and fusion accounting for 45, 45 and 7 % of this, respectively.ConclusionsAge was the most significant determinant of adjacent segment disc space height followed by genetic factors, specifically inflammatory genes. Fusion explained a statistically significant but small proportion of the total variance. Much of the variance remained to be explained.

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