• The Journal of infection · Nov 2020

    Influenza-negative influenza-like illness (fnILI) Z-score as a proxy for incidence and mortality of COVID-19.

    • Fatima N Mirza, Amyn A Malik, Chandra Couzens, and Saad B Omer.
    • Yale Institute for Global Health, Yale University, 1 Church St, New Haven, CT 06510, United States; Yale School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06510, United States. Electronic address: fatima.mirza@yale.edu.
    • J. Infect. 2020 Nov 1; 81 (5): 793-796.

    AbstractAlthough direct detection of SARS-CoV2 in symptomatic or asymptomatic individuals is the ideal epidemiological tool for determining the burden of disease, the lack of availability of testing can preclude its wider implementation as a robust surveillance system. We correlated the use of the derivative influenza-negative influenza-like illness (fnILI) z-score from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as a proxy for incident cases and disease-specific deaths. For every unit increase of fnILI z-score, the number of cases increased by 376.5 (95% CI [202.5, 550.5]) and number of deaths increased by 10.2 (95% CI [5.4, 15.0]). FnILI data may serve as an accurate outcome measurement to track the spread of COVID-19 infection and disease, and allow for informed and timely decision-making on public health interventions.Copyright © 2020 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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