• Laurent Guillier, Sandra Martin-Latil, Estelle Chaix, Anne Thébault, Nicole Pavio, Sophie Le Poder, Christophe Batéjat, Fabrice Biot, Lionel Koch, Donald W Schaffner, Moez Sanaa, and Covid-19 Emergency Collective Expert Appraisal Group.
• Risk Assessment Department, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety, Maisons-Alfort, France laurent.guillier@anses.fr.
• Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 2020 Sep 1; 86 (18).

AbstractTemperature and relative humidity are major factors determining virus inactivation in the environment. This article reviews inactivation data regarding coronaviruses on surfaces and in liquids from published studies and develops secondary models to predict coronaviruses inactivation as a function of temperature and relative humidity. A total of 102 D values (i.e., the time to obtain a log10 reduction of virus infectivity), including values for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), were collected from 26 published studies. The values obtained from the different coronaviruses and studies were found to be generally consistent. Five different models were fitted to the global data set of D values. The most appropriate model considered temperature and relative humidity. A spreadsheet predicting the inactivation of coronaviruses and the associated uncertainty is presented and can be used to predict virus inactivation for untested temperatures, time points, or any coronavirus strains belonging to Alphacoronavirus and Betacoronavirus genera.IMPORTANCE The prediction of the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 on fomites is essential in investigating the importance of contact transmission. This study collects available information on inactivation kinetics of coronaviruses in both solid and liquid fomites and creates a mathematical model for the impact of temperature and relative humidity on virus persistence. The predictions of the model can support more robust decision-making and could be useful in various public health contexts. A calculator for the natural clearance of SARS-CoV-2 depending on temperature and relative humidity could be a valuable operational tool for public authorities.Copyright © 2020 American Society for Microbiology.

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