• Evelien E S van Riet, Arno W Hoes, Alexander Limburg, Marcel A J Landman, Hans Kemperman, and Frans H Rutten.
• Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
• BMJ Open. 2016 Feb 15; 6 (2): e008225.

ObjectivesThere is a need for a practical tool to aid general practitioners in early detection of heart failure in the elderly with shortness of breath. In this study, such a screening rule was developed based on an existing rule for detecting heart failure in older persons with a diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The original rule included a history of ischaemic heart disease, body mass index, laterally displaced apex beat, heart rate, elevated N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide and an abnormal ECG.DesignCross-sectional data were used to validate, update and extend the original prediction rule according to a standardised state-of-the-art stepwise approach.SettingPrimary care with 30 participating general practices.ParticipantsCommunity-dwelling people aged ≥ 65 years with shortness of breath on exertion.Methods And ResultsValidation of the existing screening rule in our population showed satisfying discrimination with a concordance statistic of 0.84 (range 0.80-0.85), but poor calibration. Performance measures were most improved by adding the predictors age >75 years, peripheral oedema and systolic murmur, resulting in a concordance statistic of 0.88 (range 0.85-0.90) and a net reclassification improvement of 31%. A risk score was computed, which showed high accuracy with a negative predictive value of 87% and a positive predictive value of 73%. Evaluating the improved rule in the derivation set and an independent set of patients with type 2 diabetes aged 60 years or older showed satisfying generalisability of the rule.ConclusionsOur rule resulted in excellent prediction of heart failure in the large domain of the elderly with shortness of breath, and would help general practitioners to select those needing echocardiography.Trial Registration NumberNCT01202006.Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

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