• Bohdan Nosyk, Xiao Zang, Emanuel Krebs, Benjamin Enns, Jeong E Min, Czarina N Behrends, Carlos Del Rio, Julia C Dombrowski, Daniel J Feaster, Matthew Golden, Marshall Brandon D L BDL School of Public Health, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA., Shruti H Mehta, Lisa R Metsch, Ankur Pandya, Bruce R Schackman, Steven Shoptaw, Steffanie A Strathdee, and Localized HIV Modeling Study Group.
• British Columbia Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Vancouver, BC, Canada; Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada. Electronic address: bnosyk@cfenet.ubc.ca.
• Lancet HIV. 2020 Jul 1; 7 (7): e491-e503.

BackgroundThe HIV epidemic in the USA is a collection of diverse local microepidemics. We aimed to identify optimal combination implementation strategies of evidence-based interventions to reach 90% reduction of incidence in 10 years, in six US cities that comprise 24·1% of people living with HIV in the USA.MethodsIn this economic modelling study, we used a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated with the best available evidence on epidemiological and structural conditions for six US cities: Atlanta (GA), Baltimore (MD), Los Angeles (CA), Miami (FL), New York City (NY), and Seattle (WA). We assessed 23 040 combinations of 16 evidence-based interventions (ie, HIV prevention, testing, treatment, engagement, and re-engagement) to identify combination strategies providing the greatest health benefit while remaining cost-effective. Main outcomes included averted HIV infections, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), total cost (in 2018 US$), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER; from the health-care sector perspective, 3% annual discount rate). Interventions were implemented at previously documented and ideal (90% coverage or adoption) scale-up, and sustained from 2020 to 2030, with outcomes evaluated until 2040.FindingsOptimal combination strategies providing health benefit and cost-effectiveness contained between nine (Seattle) and 13 (Miami) individual interventions. If implemented at previously documented scale-up, these strategies could reduce incidence by between 30·7% (95% credible interval 19·1-43·7; Seattle) and 50·1% (41·5-58·0; New York City) by 2030, at ICERs ranging from cost-saving in Atlanta, Baltimore, and Miami, to $95 416 per QALY in Seattle. Incidence reductions reached between 39·5% (26·3-53·8) in Seattle and 83·6% (70·8-87·0) in Baltimore at ideal implementation. Total costs of implementing strategies across the cities at previously documented scale-up reached $559 million per year in 2024; however, costs were offset by long-term reductions in new infections and delayed disease progression, with Atlanta, Baltimore, and Miami projecting cost savings over the 20 year study period.InterpretationEvidence-based interventions can deliver substantial public health and economic value; however, complementary strategies to overcome social and structural barriers to HIV care will be required to reach national targets of the ending the HIV epidemic initiative by 2030.FundingNational Institutes of Health.Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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