• Agnieszka Kapłon-Cieślicka, Monika Budnik, Monika Gawałko, Michał Peller, Iwona Gorczyca, Anna Michalska, Aldona Babiarz, Aleksandra Bodys, Robert Uliński, Maciej Żochowski, Piotr Scisło, Janusz Kochanowski, Krzysztof J Filipiak, and Grzegorz Opolski.
• 1st Chair and Department of Cardiology, Medical University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland.
• Heart. 2019 Sep 1; 105 (17): 1310-1315.

ObjectiveWe aimed to identify predictors of left atrial appendage (LAA) thrombus in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and to enhance the prognostic value of the CHA2DS2-VASc score.MethodsDerivation cohort included 1033 consecutive AF patients referred for catheter ablation or direct current cardioversion, in whom transoesophageal echocardiography (TOE) was performed prior to the procedure. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictors of LAA thrombus on TOE. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to compare the newly developed score with the CHA2DS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores in the derivation and the validation (n=320) cohort.ResultsOn TOE, LAA thrombus was present in 59 (5.7%) patients in the derivation cohort. Aside from variables encompassed by the CHA2DS2-VASc score, LAA thrombus predictors included AF type (persistent/'permanent' vs paroxysmal) and renal dysfunction. These predictors were incorporated into the CHA2DS2-VASc score. In ROC analysis, area under the curve (AUC) for the new score (CHA2DS2-VASc-RAF score) was significantly higher (0.81) than those for the CHA2DS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores (0.71 and 0.70, respectively). In the validation cohort, the CHA2DS2-VASc-RAF score also performed significantly better (AUC of 0.88) than the CHA2DS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores (AUC of 0.63 and 0.60, respectively).ConclusionIn real-world AF patients with majority on oral anticoagulation, LAA thrombus was found in approximately 6%. Two variables not included in the CHA2DS2-VASc score (AF type and renal dysfunction) proved strong, independent predictors of LAA thrombus and might improve thromboembolic risk stratification.© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

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