• E S Siris, P D Miller, E Barrett-Connor, K G Faulkner, L E Wehren, T A Abbott, M L Berger, A C Santora, and L M Sherwood.
• Toni Stabile Osteoporosis Center, Columbia Presbyterian Medical Center, 180 Fort Washington Ave, New York, NY 10032-3784, USA. es27@columbia.edu
• JAMA. 2001 Dec 12; 286 (22): 2815-22.

ContextLarge segments of the population at risk for osteoporosis and fracture have not been evaluated, and the usefulness of peripheral measurements for short-term prediction of fracture risk is uncertain.ObjectivesTo describe the occurrence of low bone mineral density (BMD) in postmenopausal women, its risk factors, and fracture incidence during short-term follow-up.DesignThe National Osteoporosis Risk Assessment, a longitudinal observational study initiated September 1997 to March 1999, with approximately 12 months of subsequent follow-up.Setting And ParticipantsA total of 200 160 ambulatory postmenopausal women aged 50 years or older with no previous osteoporosis diagnosis, derived from 4236 primary care practices in 34 states.Main Outcome MeasuresBaseline BMD T scores, obtained from peripheral bone densitometry performed at the heel, finger, or forearm; risk factors for low BMD, derived from questionnaire responses; and clinical fracture rates at 12-month follow-up.ResultsUsing World Health Organization criteria, 39.6% had osteopenia (T score of -1 to -2.49) and 7.2% had osteoporosis (T score ConclusionsAlmost half of this population had previously undetected low BMD, including 7% with osteoporosis. Peripheral BMD results were highly predictive of fracture risk. Given the economic and social costs of osteoporotic fractures, strategies to identify and manage osteoporosis in the primary care setting need to be established and implemented.

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