• Marija Rūta Babarskiene, Jone Vencloviene, Dalia Luksiene, Birute Slapikiene, Irena Milvidaite, Rimvydas Slapikas, and Jūrate Janenaite.
• Department of Cardiology, Kaunas University of Medicine, Kaunas, Lithuania. ruta@kmu.lt
• Medicina (Kaunas). 2007 Jan 1; 43 (5): 366-75.

AbstractThe aim of the study was to create the model of the combination of clinical and echocardiographic determinants during the acute period of acute coronary syndromes for the prognostication of the risk for left ventricular dysfunction after one year. We examined 565 patients with first-time acute coronary syndrome with no recurrence during one-year period. The studied group consisted of 496 patients, and the examined group--of 69 patients. All patients with acute coronary syndrome within the first three days underwent the evaluation of demographic, anamnesis, clinical indicators, risk factors for ischemic heart disease, ECG, and echocardiographic findings for the prognostication of the risk of left ventricular dysfunction after one year. Multiple logistic regression analysis was applied for the identification of independent determinants for the prognostication of left ventricular dysfunction, and three risk groups were identified. The prognostic informative value of the model was verified by comparing the incidence of left ventricular systolic dysfunction in risk groups after one year between the studied and the control groups. RESULTS. After one year, left ventricular systolic dysfunction (left ventricular ejection fraction <40%) in the presence of acute coronary syndrome remained in more than half (65.3%) of patients and returned to normal (left ventricular ejection fraction > or =40%) in one-third of patients (34.7%). Left ventricular systolic function that was normal during the acute period of coronary syndrome remained such in the majority (80.9%) of patients after one year, whereas one-fifth (19.1%) of patients developed left ventricular systolic dysfunction. The mathematical model for the prognostication of systolic dysfunction after one year was composed of the determinants of acute coronary syndrome: left ventricular ejection fraction <40%, anterior localization of Q-wave myocardial infarction, Killip class 3-4, left ventricular pseudo-normal or restrictive diastolic function, and frequent ventricular extrasystoles. The application of our model in the prognostication of late left ventricular systolic dysfunction during the acute period of coronary syndrome showed that the model was reliable, since after one year, the prognosticated left ventricular systolic dysfunction was determined in the majority (84.3%) of patients. The designed mathematical model is simple and is based on standard clinical and echocardiographic findings, and the scoring system allows for the prognostication of the risk for late left ventricular systolic dysfunction in any individual patient. The prognostication of the risk for late left ventricular systolic dysfunction during the acute period of coronary syndrome may help in the planning of treatment and outpatient care in patients with acute coronary syndrome.

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