• Sanjay Basu and Kristina Lewis.
• Sanjay Basu is with the Prevention Research Center and Centers for Health Policy, Primary Care and Outcomes Research, Stanford University, Stanford, CA. Kristina Lewis is with the Kaiser Center for Health Research, Southeast, Kaiser Permanente, Atlanta, GA.
• Am J Public Health. 2014 Dec 1; 104 (12): 2432-8.

ObjectivesWe estimated the effect of a simulated cap-and-trade policy to reduce added sugar in the food supply.MethodsUsing nationally representative data on added-sugar content and consumption, we constructed a mathematical model of a cap-and-trade policy and compared its health implications to those of proposals to tax sugar sweetened beverages or added sugars.ResultsCapping added-sugar emissions into the food supply by food manufacturers at a rate of 1% per year would be expected to reduce the prevalence of obesity by 1.7 percentage points (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.9, 2.4; a 4.6% decline) and the incidence of type 2 diabetes by 21.7 cases per 100 000 people (95% CI = 12.9, 30.6; a 4.2% decline) over 20 years, averting approximately $9.7 billion in health care spending. Racial and ethnic minorities would be expected to experience the largest declines. By comparison, equivalent price penalties through excise taxes would be expected to generate smaller health benefits.ConclusionsA cap-and-trade policy to reduce added-sugar intake may reduce obesity and type 2 diabetes to a greater extent than currently-proposed excise taxes.

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