• Wendy Y Xu, Sheldon M Retchin, and Peter Buerhaus.
• The Ohio State University, 208 Cunz Hall, 1841 Neil Ave, Columbus, OH 43210. Email: xu.1636@osu.edu.
• Am J Manag Care. 2021 May 1; 27 (5): 212-216.

ObjectivesTo determine whether enough primary care providers are in close proximity to where dual-eligible beneficiaries live to provide the capacity needed for integrated care models.Study DesignSecondary data analysis using dual-eligible enrollment data and health care workforce data.MethodsWe determined the density of dual-eligible beneficiaries per 1000 population in 2017 for each of 3142 US counties. County-level supply of primary care physicians (PCPs), primary care nurse practitioners, and physician assistants was determined.ResultsOne-third of the 791 counties with the highest density of dual-eligible beneficiaries had PCP shortages. Counties with the highest density of dual-eligible beneficiaries and the fewest primary care clinicians of any type were concentrated in Southeastern states. These areas also had some of the highest coronavirus disease 2019 outbreaks within their states.ConclusionsStates in the Southeastern region of the United States with some of the most restrictive scope-of-practice laws have an inadequate supply of primary care providers to serve a high concentration of dual-eligible beneficiaries. The fragmented care of the dually eligible population leads to extremely high costs, prompting policy makers to consider integrated delivery models that emphasize primary care. However, primary care workforce shortages will be an enduring challenge without scope-of-practice reforms.

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