• Motokazu Sugimoto, Irmina A Elliott, Andrew H Nguyen, Stephen Kim, V Raman Muthusamy, Rabindra Watson, O Joe Hines, David W Dawson, Howard A Reber, and Timothy R Donahue.
• Department of Surgery, David Geffen School of Medicine at University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).
• JAMA Surg. 2017 Jan 18; 152 (1): e163349.

ImportanceAccording to the 2012 International Consensus Guidelines, the diagnostic criterion of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) involving the main duct (MD IPMNs) or the main and branch ducts (mixed IPMNs) of the pancreatic system is a main pancreatic duct (MPD) diameter of 5.0 mm or greater on computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). However, surgical resection is recommended for patients with an MPD diameter of 10.0 mm or greater, which is characterized as a high-risk stigma. An MPD diameter of 5.0 to 9.0 mm is not an indication for immediate resection.ObjectivesTo determine an appropriate cutoff (ie, one with high sensitivity and negative predictive value) of the MPD diameter on CT or MRI as a prognostic factor for malignant disease and to propose a new management algorithm for patients with MD or mixed IPMNs.Design, Setting, And ParticipantsThis retrospective cohort study included 103 patients who underwent surgical resection for a preoperative diagnosis of MD or mixed IPMN and in whom IPMN was confirmed by surgical pathologic findings at a single institution from July 1, 1996, to December 31, 2015.Main Outcomes And MeasuresMalignant disease was defined as high-grade dysplasia or invasive adenocarcinoma on results of surgical pathologic evaluation. An appropriate MPD diameter on preoperative CT or MRI to predict malignant disease was determined using a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The prognostic value of the new management algorithm that incorporated the new MPD diameter cutoff was evaluated.ResultsAmong the 103 patients undergoing resection for an MD or mixed IPMN (59 men [57.3%]; 44 women [42.7%]; median [range] age, 71 [48-86] years), 64 (62.1%) had malignant disease. Diagnostic accuracy for malignant neoplasms was highest at an MPD diameter cutoff of 7.2 mm (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.59-0.81). An MPD diameter of 7.2 mm or greater was also an independent prognostic factor for malignant neoplasms (odds ratio, 12.76; 95% CI, 2.43-66.88; P = .003) on logistic regression analysis after controlling for preoperative variables. The new management algorithm, which included an MPD diameter of 7.2 mm or greater as one of the high-risk stigmata, had a higher sensitivity (100%), negative predictive value (100%), and accuracy (66%) for malignant disease than the 2012 version of the International Consensus Guidelines (95%, 57%, and 63%, respectively).Conclusions And RelevanceIn this single-center, retrospective analysis, an MPD diameter of 7.2 mm was identified as an optimal cutoff for a prognostic factor for malignant disease in MD or mixed IPMN. These data support lowering the accepted criteria for MPD diameter when selecting patients for resection vs surveillance so as not to overlook cancer in IPMN.

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