• Tao Zhou, Quanhui Liu, Zimo Yang, Jingyi Liao, Kexin Yang, Wei Bai, Xin Lu, and Wei Zhang.
• Big Data Research Center, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, 611731, China.
• J Evid Based Med. 2020 Feb 1; 13 (1): 3-7.

ObjectivesTo estimate the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).MethodsBased on the susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) compartment model and the assumption that the infectious cases with symptoms occurred before 26 January, 2020 are resulted from free propagation without intervention, we estimate the basic reproduction number of 2019-nCoV according to the reported confirmed cases and suspected cases, as well as the theoretical estimated number of infected cases by other research teams, together with some epidemiological determinants learned from the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).ResultsThe basic reproduction number fall between 2.8 and 3.3 by using the real-time reports on the number of 2019-nCoV-infected cases from People's Daily in China and fall between 3.2 and 3.9 on the basis of the predicted number of infected cases from international colleagues.ConclusionsThe early transmission ability of 2019-nCoV is close to or slightly higher than SARS. It is a controllable disease with moderate to high transmissibility. Timely and effective control measures are needed to prevent the further transmissions.© 2020 Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

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