• Sourya Shrestha, Sarah Cherng, Andrew N Hill, Sue Reynolds, Jennifer Flood, Pennan M Barry, Adam Readhead, Margaret Oxtoby, Michael Lauzardo, Tom Privett, Suzanne M Marks, and David W Dowdy.
• Department of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland.
• Am. J. Epidemiol. 2019 Sep 1; 188 (9): 1733-1741.

AbstractThe incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in the United States has stabilized, and additional interventions are needed to make progress toward TB elimination. However, the impact of such interventions depends on local demography and the heterogeneity of populations at risk. Using state-level individual-based TB transmission models calibrated to California, Florida, New York, and Texas, we modeled 2 TB interventions: 1) increased targeted testing and treatment (TTT) of high-risk populations, including people who are non-US-born, diabetic, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive, homeless, or incarcerated; and 2) enhanced contact investigation (ECI) for contacts of TB patients, including higher completion of preventive therapy. For each intervention, we projected reductions in active TB incidence over 10 years (2016-2026) and numbers needed to screen and treat in order to avert 1 case. We estimated that TTT delivered to half of the non-US-born adult population could lower TB incidence by 19.8%-26.7% over a 10-year period. TTT delivered to smaller populations with higher TB risk (e.g., HIV-positive persons, homeless persons) and ECI were generally more efficient but had less overall impact on incidence. TTT targeted to smaller, highest-risk populations and ECI can be highly efficient; however, major reductions in incidence will only be achieved by also targeting larger, moderate-risk populations. Ultimately, to eliminate TB in the United States, a combination of these approaches will be necessary.Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 2019.

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