• Grace Hsiao-Hsuan Jen, Shey-Ying Chen, Wei-Jung Chang, Chiung-Nien Chen, Amy Ming-Fang Yen, and Ray-E Chang.
• Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
• J Formos Med Assoc. 2021 Jun 1; 120 Suppl 1: S86-S94.

BackgroundThe surge of COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe respiratory conditions and a large number of deaths due to the shortage of intensive care unit (ICU) in many countries.MethodsWe developed a compartment queue model to describe the process from case confirmation, home-based isolation, hospitalization, ICU, recovery, and death. By using public assessed data in Lombardy, Italy, we estimated two congestion indices for isolation wards and ICU. The excess ICU needs were estimated in Lombardy, Italy, and other countries when data were available, including France, Spain, Belgium, New York State in the USA, South Korea, and Japan.ResultsIn Lombardy, Italy, the congestion of isolation beds had increased from 2.2 to the peak of 6.0 in March and started to decline to 3.9 as of 9th May, whereas the demand for ICU during the same period has not decreased yet with an increasing trend from 2.9 to 8.0. The results showed the unmet ICU need from the second week in March as of 9th May. The same situation was shown in France, Spain, Belgium, and New York State, USA but not for South Korea and Japan. The results with data until December 2020 for Lombardy, Italy were also estimated to reflect the demand for hospitalization and ICU after the occurrence of viral variants.ConclusionTwo congestion indices for isolation wards and ICU beds using open assessed tabulated data with a compartment queue model underpinning were developed to monitor the clinical capacity in hospitals in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.Copyright © 2021. Published by Elsevier B.V.

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