• Jae Yeol Kim, So Yeon Lim, Kyeongman Jeon, Younsuck Koh, Chae-Man Lim, Shin Ok Koh, Sungwon Na, Kyoung Min Lee, Byung Ho Lee, Jae-Young Kwon, Kook Hyun Lee, Seok-Hwa Yoon, Jisook Park, and Gee Young Suh.
• Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Medicine, Chung-Ang University College of Medicine, and Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Severance Hospital, Seoul 135-710, Korea.
• Yonsei Med. J. 2013 Mar 1; 54 (2): 425-31.

PurposeThis study was designed to validate the usefulness of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II for predicting hospital mortality of critically ill Korean patients.Materials And MethodsWe analyzed data on 826 patients who had been admitted to nine intensive care units and were included in the Fever and Antipyretics in Critical Illness Evaluation study cohort.ResultsAmong the patients enrolled, 62% (512/826) were medical and 38% (314/826) were surgical patients. The median APACHE II score was 17 (11 to 23 interquartile range), and the hospital mortality rate was 19.5%. Age, underlying diseases, medical patients, mechanical ventilation, and renal replacement therapy were independently associated with hospital mortality. The calibration of APACHE II was poor (H=57.54, p<0.0001; C=55.99, p<0.0001), and the discrimination was modest [area under the receiver operating characteristic (aROC)=0.729]. Calibration was poor for both medical and surgical patients (H=63.56, p<0.0001; C=73.83, p<0.0001, and H=33.92, p<0.0001; C=33.34, p=0.0001, respectively), while discrimination was poor for medical patients (aROC=0.651) and modest for surgical patients (aROC=0.704). At the predicted risk of 50%, APACHE II had a sensitivity of 36.6% and a specificity of 87.4% for hospital mortality.ConclusionFor Koreans, the APACHE II exhibits poor calibration and modest discrimination for hospital mortality. Therefore, a new model is needed to accurately predict mortality in critically ill Korean patients.

10 keywords...

hide…