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- Ralph Catalano, Joan A Casey, Tim A Bruckner, and Alison Gemmill.
- School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA. rayc@berkeley.edu.
- Eur. J. Epidemiol. 2020 Nov 1; 35 (11): 1021-1024.
AbstractLay persons and policy makers have speculated on how national differences in the imposition of social distancing to reduce SARS CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) infection has affected non-COVID-19 deaths. No rigorous estimation of the effect appears in the scholarly literature. We use time-series methods to compare non-COVID-19 deaths in Norway during its 9 weeks of mandated social distancing to those expected from history as well as from non-COVID-19 deaths in relatively less restricted Sweden. We estimate that 430 fewer Norwegians than expected died from causes other than COVID-19. We argue that failing to account for averted non-COVID-19 deaths will lead to an underestimate of the benefits of social distancing policies.
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