• Thomas A Stamey, Iain M Johnstone, John E McNeal, Arthur Y Lu, and Cheryl M Yemoto.
• Department of Urology, School of Medicine and Department of Statistics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
• J. Urol. 2002 Jan 1; 167 (1): 103-11.

PurposeSerum prostate specific antigen (PSA) is widely used as a guide to initiate prostatic biopsies and to follow men older than 50 years old with and without prostate cancer. However, benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) is a common cause of serum PSA values between 2 and 10 ng./ml. A better understanding of the relationships among serum PSA, prostate cancer and BPH is important.Materials And MethodsA total of 875 men underwent radical prostatectomy at our institution between December 1984 and January 1997. Of these men 784 had a serum PSA of 2 to 22 ng./ml., including 579 with the largest cancer located in the peripheral zone of the prostate. Of the 579 men 406 had serum PSA followups for greater than 3 years after radical prostatectomy. We examined Pearson correlations (R2) between preoperative serum PSA, and the volume of Gleason grades 4/5 and 3 to 1 cancer in 784 men, separating peripheral zone from transition zone cancers. We used broken line regression with break points of 7 and 9 ng./ml. preoperative PSA to summarize the relationship of each PSA doubling to 5 different morphological variables in 579 men with peripheral zone cancer. A 9 ng./ml. break point was used for prostate weight. Trend summaries with a local regression line for the relationships between 6 morphological variables and PSA were superimposed on full scatterplots of the 579 men with PSA less than 22 ng./ml. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine 5-year PSA failure-free probabilities based on 406 men with minimal PSA followups greater than 3 years at break points of 7 to 9 ng./ml. PSA.ResultsPearson correlation between cancer volume and preoperative serum PSA in 875 men was weak (r2 = 0.27) and driven by large cancers with serum PSA greater than 22 ng./ml. For peripheral zone cancer the overall R2 x 100 for 641 men with low and high grade cancer was 10% and only 3% for low grade cancer, that is almost no PSA produced by these peripheral zone cancers enters the serum. All morphological variables changed at rates of doubtful medical significance below a PSA of 7 to 9 ng./ml. but at rates that were significantly worse above 9 ng./ml. R2 for these relationships was never greater than 15%. Large individual morphological variations at all levels of PSA emphasize the serious limitation of PSA as a predictor of prostate cancer morphology. Below 9 ng./ml. prostate weight increased by 21% for each doubling of PSA but above 9 ng./ml. the increase was only 4.8%.ConclusionsPreoperative serum PSA has a clinically useless relationship with cancer volume and grade in radical prostatectomy specimens, and a limited relationship with PSA cure rates at preoperative serum PSA levels of 2 to 9 ng./ml. Trend summaries for prostate weight on broken line regression showed that below 9 ng./ml. BPH is a strong contender for the cause of PSA elevation, constituting the primary cause of the over diagnosis of prostate cancer.

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