• Dipo Aldila, Brenda M Samiadji, Gracia M Simorangkir, Sarbaz H A Khosnaw, and Muhammad Shahzad.
• Department of Mathematics, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia. aldiladipo@sci.ui.ac.id.
• BMC Res Notes. 2021 Apr 12; 14 (1): 132.

ObjectiveSeveral essential factors have played a crucial role in the spreading mechanism of COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) in the human population. These factors include undetected cases, asymptomatic cases, and several non-pharmaceutical interventions. Because of the rapid spread of COVID-19 worldwide, understanding the significance of these factors is crucial in determining whether COVID-19 will be eradicated or persist in the population. Hence, in this study, we establish a new mathematical model to predict the spread of COVID-19 considering mentioned factors.ResultsInfection detection and vaccination have the potential to eradicate COVID-19 from Jakarta. From the sensitivity analysis, we find that rapid testing is crucial in reducing the basic reproduction number when COVID-19 is endemic in the population rather than contact trace. Furthermore, our results indicate that a vaccination strategy has the potential to relax social distancing rules, while maintaining the basic reproduction number at the minimum possible, and also eradicate COVID-19 from the population with a higher vaccination rate. In conclusion, our model proposed a mathematical model that can be used by Jakarta's government to relax social distancing policy by relying on future COVID-19 vaccine potential.

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