• W Rathmann, A Schwandt, J M Hermann, O Kuss, M Roden, K Laubner, F Best, S Ebner, M Plaumann, R W Holl, and DPV Initiative.
• Institute of Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Centre, Leibniz Centre for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany.
• Diabet. Med. 2019 Nov 1; 36 (11): 1468-1477.

AimTo identify groups of heterogeneous HbA1c trajectories over time in newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes.MethodsThe study comprised 6355 adults with newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes (55% men, median age 62 years, baseline BMI 31 kg/m2 ) from the Diabetes Patienten Verlaufsdokumentation (DPV) prospective multicentre diabetes registry (Germany, Austria). Individuals were assessed during the first 5 years after diabetes diagnosis if they had ≥ 3 aggregated HbA1c measurements during follow-up. Latent class growth modelling was used to determine distinct subgroups that followed similar longitudinal HbA1c patterns (SAS: Proc Traj). Multinomial logistic regression models were used to investigate which variables were associated with the respective HbA1c trajectory groups.ResultsFour distinct longitudinal HbA1c trajectory (glycaemic control) groups were found. The largest group (56% of participants) maintained stable good glycaemic control (HbA1c 42-45 mmol/mol). Twenty-six percent maintained stable moderate glycaemic control (HbA1c 57-62 mmol/mol). A third group (12%) initially showed severe hyperglycaemia (HbA1c 97 mmol/mol) but reached good glycaemic control within 1 year. The smallest group (6%) showed stable poor glycaemic control (HbA1c 79-88 mmol/mol). Younger age at diabetes diagnosis, male sex, and higher BMI were associated with the stable moderate or poor glycaemic control groups. Insulin therapy was strongly associated with the highly improved glycaemic control group.ConclusionsFour subgroups with distinct HbA1c trajectories were determined in newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes using a group-based modelling approach. Approximately one-third of people with newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes need either better medication adherence or earlier intensification of glucose-lowering therapy.© 2019 Diabetes UK.

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