• Benoist Chibaudel, Franck Bonnetain, Christophe Tournigand, Leila Bengrine-Lefevre, Luis Teixeira, Pascal Artru, Jérôme Desramé, Annette K Larsen, Thierry André, Christophe Louvet, and Aimery de Gramont.
• Department of Medical Oncology, Hôpital Saint-Antoine, 184 rue du Faubourg Saint-Antoine, 75571 Paris Cedex 12, France. benoist.chibaudel@sat.aphp.fr
• Oncologist. 2011 Jan 1; 16 (9): 1228-38.

BackgroundThe present study was done to establish a prognostic model for patients and trials using an oxaliplatin-based or irinotecan-based first-line chemotherapy in metastatic colorectal cancer.Patients And MethodsEight hundred three patients treated with FOLFOX or FOLFIRI in three prospective trials were randomly separated into learning (n = 535) and validation (n = 268) samples. Eleven baseline variables were evaluated in univariate and multivariate analysis as prognostic factors for overall survival, and a prognostic score was developed.ResultsIndependent prognostic factors identified in multivariate analysis for overall survival were performance status (PS) (p < .001), serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (p < .001), and number of metastatic sites (p = .005). A prognostic score based on these three variables was found efficient (Harrell's C index 0.61). This new model was improved by selecting only PS and LDH (Harrell's C index 0.64). Three risk groups for death could be identified: a low-risk group (n = 184; median overall survival [OS] 29.8 months), an intermediate-risk group (n = 223; median OS 19.5 months), and a high-risk group (n = 128; median OS 13.9 months). Median survival for the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups were 26.8, 21.1, and 16.5 months, respectively, in the validation sample (Harrell's C index 0.63).ConclusionsSerum LDH level was the main prognostic factor in predicting survival, followed by WHO PS. We identified three risk groups for death depending on these two baseline parameters. This simple prognostic model can be useful for clinician's use and patient stratification in future clinical trials.

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