• Grace Hyun J Kim, Stephan S Weigt, John A Belperio, Matthew S Brown, Yu Shi, Joshua H Lai, and Jonathan G Goldin.
• David Geffen School of Medicine, Radiological Science, UCLA, 924 Westwood Blvd. Ste 650, Box 957319, Los Angeles, CA, 90095-7319, USA. gracekim@mednet.ucla.edu.
• Eur Radiol. 2020 Feb 1; 30 (2): 726-734.

ObjectiveHigh-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) plays an indispensable role in the diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Due to unpredictability in progression and the short median survival of 2-5 years, it is critical to delineate the patients with rapid progression. The aim is to evaluate the predictability of IPF progression using the early quantitative changes.MethodsAutomated texture-based quantitative lung fibrosis (QLF) was calculated from the anonymized HRCT. Two datasets were collected retrospectively: (1) a pilot study of 35 subjects with three sequential scans (baseline and 6 and 12 months) to obtain a threshold, where visual assessments were stable at 6 months but worsened at 12 months; (2) 157 independent subjects to test the threshold. Landmark Cox regressions were used to compare the progression-free survival (PFS) defined by pulmonary function using the threshold from the early changes in QLF. C-indexes were reported as estimations of the concordance of prediction.ResultsA threshold of 4% QLF change at 6 months corresponded to the mean change that worsened on HRCT visually at 12 months from the pilot study. Using the threshold, significant differences were found in the independent dataset (hazard ratio (HZ) = 5.92, p = 0.001 by Cox model, C-index = 0.71 at the most severe lobe; and HZ = 3.22, p = 0.012, C-index = 0.68 in the whole lung). Median PFS was 11.9 months for subjects with ≥ 4% changes, whereas median PFS was greater than 18 months for subjects with < 4% changes at the most severe lobe.ConclusionEarly structural changes on HRCT using a quantitative score can predict progression in lung function.Key Points• Changes on HRCT using quantitative texture-based scores can play a pivotal role for providing information and an aid tool for timely management decision for patients with IPF. • Quantitative changes on HRCT of 4% or more, which matched 6-month prior changes with visual assessment of worsening, can play a pivotal role for providing prediction of clinical progression by 3-5 folds higher in the next incidence, compared with those of subjects with less than 4% changes. • Early structural changes of 4% or more in a paired HRCT scans derived by quantitative scores can predict the progression in lung function in 1-2 years in subjects with IPF, which is critical information for timely management decision for subjects with IPF where the median survival is 2 to 5 years.

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