• Joep J R Hermans, Joost Groen, Egon Zwets, Bianca M Boxma-De Klerk, Jacob M Van Werkhoven, Ong David S Y DSY Department of Medical Microbiology and Infection Control, Franciscus Gasthuis & Vlietland, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. , Wessel E J J Hanselaar, Lenneke Waals-Prinzen, and Vanessa Brown.
• Department of Emergency Medicine, Franciscus Gasthuis & Vlietland, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. j.hermans@franciscus.nl.
• Emerg Radiol. 2020 Dec 1; 27 (6): 641-651.

PurposeWe aimed to investigate the diagnostic performance of chest CT compared with first RT-PCR results in adult patients suspected of COVID-19 infection in an ED setting. We also constructed a predictive machine learning model based on chest CT and additional data to improve the diagnostic accuracy of chest CT.MethodsThis study's cohort consisted of 319 patients who underwent chest CT and RT-PCR testing at the ED. Patient characteristics, demographics, symptoms, vital signs, laboratory tests, and chest CT results (CO-RADS) were collected. With first RT-PCR as reference standard, the diagnostic performance of chest CT using the CO-RADS score was assessed. Additionally, a predictive machine learning model was constructed using logistic regression.ResultsChest CT, with first RT-PCR as a reference, had a sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 90.2%, 88.2%, 84.5%, and 92.7%, respectively. The prediction model with CO-RADS, ferritin, leucocyte count, CK, days of complaints, and diarrhea as predictors had a sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 89.3%, 93.4%, 90.8%, and 92.3%, respectively.ConclusionChest CT, using the CO-RADS scoring system, is a sensitive and specific method that can aid in the diagnosis of COVID-19, especially if RT-PCR tests are scarce during an outbreak. Combining a predictive machine learning model could further improve the accuracy of diagnostic chest CT for COVID-19. Further candidate predictors should be analyzed to improve our model. However, RT-PCR should remain the primary standard of testing as up to 9% of RT-PCR positive patients are not diagnosed by chest CT or our machine learning model.

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