• Hyungjin Kim, Hyunsook Hong, and Soon Ho Yoon.
• From the Department of Radiology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, 101 Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul 03080, Korea (H.K., S.H.Y.); Institute of Radiation Medicine, Seoul National University Medical Research Center, Seoul, Korea (H.K., S.H.Y.); and Medical Research Collaborating Center, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, Korea (H.H.).
• Radiology. 2020 Sep 1; 296 (3): E145-E155.

AbstractBackground Recent studies have suggested that chest CT scans could be used as a primary screening or diagnostic tool for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in epidemic areas. Purpose To perform a meta-analysis to evaluate diagnostic performance measures, including predictive values of chest CT and initial reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Materials and Methods Medline and Embase were searched from January 1, 2020, to April 3, 2020, for studies on COVID-19 that reported the sensitivity, specificity, or both of CT scans, RT-PCR assays, or both. The pooled sensitivity and specificity were estimated by using random-effects models. The actual prevalence (ie, the proportion of confirmed patients among those tested) in eight countries was obtained from web sources, and the predictive values were calculated. Meta-regression was performed to reveal the effect of potential explanatory factors on the diagnostic performance measures. Results The pooled sensitivity was 94% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 91%, 96%; I2 = 95%) for chest CT and 89% (95% CI: 81%, 94%; I 2 = 90%) for RT-PCR. The pooled specificity was 37% (95% CI: 26%, 50%; I2 = 83%) for chest CT. The prevalence of COVID-19 outside China ranged from 1.0% to 22.9%. For chest CT scans, the positive predictive value (PPV) ranged from 1.5% to 30.7%, and the negative predictive value (NPV) ranged from 95.4% to 99.8%. For RT-PCR, the PPV ranged from 47.3% to 96.4%, whereas the NPV ranged from 96.8% to 99.9%. The sensitivity of CT was affected by the distribution of disease severity, the proportion of patients with comorbidities, and the proportion of asymptomatic patients (all P < .05). The sensitivity of RT-PCR was negatively associated with the proportion of elderly patients (P = .01). Conclusion Outside of China where there is a low prevalence of coronavirus disease 2019 (range, 1%-22.9%), chest CT screening of patients with suspected disease had low positive predictive value (range, 1.5%-30.7%). © RSNA, 2020 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

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