• Paul M Ridker, Nader Rifai, Nancy R Cook, Gary Bradwin, and Julie E Buring.
• Donald W. Reynolds Center for Cardiovascular Research, Leducq Center for Molecular and Genetic Epidemiology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA 02215, USA. pridker@partners.org
• JAMA. 2005 Jul 20;294(3):326-33.

ContextCurrent guidelines for cardiovascular risk detection are controversial with regard to the clinical utility of different lipid measures, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C), lipid ratios, apolipoproteins, and C-reactive protein (CRP).ObjectiveTo directly compare the clinical utility of total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), HDL-C, non-HDL-C, apolipoproteins A-I and B(100), high-sensitivity CRP, and the ratios of total cholesterol to HDL-C, LDL-C to HDL-C, apolipoprotein B(100) to apolipoprotein A-I, and apolipoprotein B(100) to HDL-C as predictors of future cardiovascular events in women.Design, Setting, And ParticipantsProspective cohort study of 15,632 initially healthy US women aged 45 years or older (interquartile range, 48-59 years) who were enrolled between November 1992 and July 1995. All participants were followed up over a 10-year period for the occurrence of future cardiovascular events.Main Outcome MeasureHazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for first-ever major cardiovascular events (N = 464) according to baseline levels of each biomarker.ResultsAfter adjustment for age, smoking status, blood pressure, diabetes, and body mass index, the HRs for future cardiovascular events for those in the extreme quintiles were 1.62 (95% CI, 1.17-2.25) for LDL-C, 1.75 (95% CI, 1.30-2.38) for apolipoprotein A-I, 2.08 (95% CI, 1.45-2.97) for total cholesterol, 2.32 (95% CI, 1.64-3.33) for HDL-C, 2.50 (95% CI, 1.68-3.72) for apolipoprotein B(100), 2.51 (95% CI, 1.69-3.72) for non-HDL-C, and 2.98 (95% CI, 1.90-4.67) for high-sensitivity CRP (P<.001 for trend across all quintiles). The HRs for the lipid ratios were 3.01 (95% CI, 2.01-4.50) for apolipoprotein B(100) to apolipoprotein A-I, 3.18 (95% CI, 2.12-4.75) for LDL-C to HDL-C, 3.56 (95% CI, 2.31-5.47) for apolipoprotein B(100) to HDL-C, and 3.81 (95% CI, 2.47-5.86) for the total cholesterol to HDL-C (P<.001 for trend across all quintiles). The correlation coefficients between high-sensitivity CRP and the lipid parameters ranged from -0.33 to 0.15, and the clinical cut points for CRP of less than 1, 1 to 3, and higher than 3 mg/L provided prognostic information on risk across increasing levels of each lipid measure and lipid ratio.ConclusionsNon-HDL-C and the ratio of total cholesterol to HDL-C were as good as or better than apolipoprotein fractions in the prediction of future cardiovascular events. After adjustment for age, blood pressure, smoking, diabetes, and obesity, high-sensitivity CRP added prognostic information beyond that conveyed by all lipid measures.

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