• Xinli Liao, Wei Xu, Junlin Zhang, Ying Li, and Yugang Tian.
• Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
• Sci. Total Environ. 2019 May 1; 663: 644-653.

AbstractQuantifying global population exposure to rainstorms is a key component of population risk assessments for rainstorms and induced floods. Based on daily precipitation data from the NEX-GDDP dataset, rainfall from rainstorms is first calculated by a multi-model ensemble method for four periods from 1986 to 2100. Combined with population data from the SSP2 scenario, the global population exposure to rainstorms is then calculated and analyzed. Finally, the contribution rates of climate change effect, population change effect, and joint change effect on exposure change are quantitatively assessed. The results showed that (1) Population exposure to rainstorms shows a linear upward trend from base period to the late 21st century period in most regions, and the mid-21st century period compared with base period has the fastest rate of increase. (2) The spatial patterns of population exposure to rainstorms are very similar for the four periods and the areas with high exposure are mainly distributed in Asia, population exposure of Africa is gradually increasing. The countries with high exposure show little volatility, especially the top eight countries. (3) The change in total exposure is mainly due to population change. Based on the composition of the total exposure change for each country, the number of countries whose climate change effect is greater than that of population change is gradually increasing, and this number reaches more than a quarter of the total when the late 21st century period is compared with the mid-21st century period.Copyright © 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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