• Yu Taniguchi, Akihiko Kitamura, Takumi Abe, Gotaro Kojima, Tomohiro Shinozaki, Satoshi Seino, Yuri Yokoyama, Yu Nofuji, Tomoko Ikeuchi, Yutaka Matsuyama, Yoshinori Fujiwara, and Shoji Shinkai.
• Center for Health and Environmental Risk Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki, Japan.
• Geriatr Gerontol Int. 2020 Nov 1; 20 (11): 1072-1078.

AimUsing up to 13 years of repeated-measures data, we identified aging trajectories for an index in frailty score among older Japanese undergoing health checkups. In addition, we examined whether these trajectories were associated with all-cause and cause-specific mortality and healthcare costs.MethodsIn total, 1698 adults aged ≥65 years completed annual assessments during 2002-2014. During follow-up, the average number of follow-up assessments was 3.9, and the total number of observations was 6373. Frailty was defined by using the following criteria from Fried's phenotype: slowness, weakness, exhaustion, low physical activity and weight loss.ResultsWe identified four aging trajectories for frailty. Specifically, 6.5%, 47.3%, 30.3% and 16.0% of participants were in the high, second, third and low trajectory groups, respectively. As compared with the low trajectory group, the high trajectory group had greater risks of cardiovascular disease (adjusted hazard ratios of 3.42) and other-cause death (adjusted hazard ratios of 3.04). The high trajectory group had the highest medical costs until late in the eighth decade of life, costs decreased after age 70 years and were lowest at age 90 years (estimated at $116.7); however, medical and long-term care costs greatly increased after age 80 years in the second and third trajectory groups.ConclusionsHigher aging trajectories in frailty score were associated with elevated risks for cardiovascular, other-cause and all-cause death among older Japanese receiving health checkups. Medical and care needs greatly increased for the second and third trajectory groups when their frailty level was progressed in later life. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2020; 20: 1072-1078..© 2020 Japan Geriatrics Society.

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